Clean ammonia: costs, carriers and global market dynamics

Ammonia has been a cornerstone of the global fertiliser industry for more than a century, but its role is now expanding. As the world pushes towards decarbonisation, ammonia is increasingly seen as a critical solution for decarbonising heavy industry, shipping, power generation and transporting hydrogen. Its unique potential as a hydrogen carrier makes it one of the most promising molecules for the energy transition.

To explore these opportunities and challenges, Johnson Matthey partnered with Argus Media to host a webinar on “Clean Ammonia: Costs, Carriers and Global Market Dynamics”. Chaired by Marina Simonova, Clean Ammonia Lead at Argus, the discussion brought together leading voices from across the value chain:

• Phil Ingram, Managing Director, Low Carbon Hydrogen & Ammonia, Johnson Matthey

• Tobias Birwe, Global Head of Bid Management, thyssenkrupp Uhde

• Vibeke Rasmussen, SVP Clean Ammonia, Yara International

• Tarek Hosny, VP Low Carbon Projects, Fertiglobe

The panel examined definitions, technology pathways, infrastructure, commercial realities and the global outlook for clean ammonia. Here are the key takeaways.

 

What do we mean by clean ammonia?

The conversation began with terminology. The terms “blue”, “green” and “clean” ammonia are often used interchangeably, but as Phil Ingram highlighted, what truly matters is carbon intensity. Only Japan has set a numerical standard so far, at 0.87 kilograms of CO₂ per kilogram of ammonia.

Without harmonised methodologies, the risk is that producers and buyers will be “comparing apples and oranges”, as Vibeke Rasmussen put it. Transparent and consistent accounting for emissions will be essential if ammonia is to function as a global commodity.

 

Blue versus green: technology pathways

The panel drew a clear distinction between blue and green ammonia.

Blue ammonia uses fossil feedstocks but captures CO₂ emissions through established technologies. Tobias Birwe explained that autothermal reformers can achieve capture rates of up to 99 per cent, and these units are already proven at world scale. For investors and offtakers, this makes blue ammonia a low-risk option for delivering near-term volumes.

Green ammonia, produced from renewable electricity and electrolysis, is less mature. Costs remain high, electrolyser efficiencies are improving but not yet optimal, and intermittent renewable supply adds complexity. As Ingram noted, both pathways are needed: blue ammonia to provide scale quickly and green ammonia to build the renewable future.

 

Ammonia as a hydrogen carrier

One of ammonia’s greatest strengths is its role as a hydrogen carrier. Transporting hydrogen directly is technically challenging and expensive. Ammonia, by contrast, is easier to ship, already traded globally, and carbon-free at the point of use.

Phil Ingram outlined Johnson Matthey’s ADEPT™ technology, a large-scale cracking process capable of producing up to 500 tonnes of hydrogen per day. By using ammonia as the fuel within the cracker, ADEPT™ technology avoids reintroducing carbon emissions. Analysis shows that for Northwestern Europe in particular, importing clean ammonia and cracking it back to hydrogen is cheaper than producing green hydrogen locally.

 

Market signals and the role of offtake

The panel agreed that technology is ready, but commercial momentum is lagging. Global commitments to clean hydrogen projects already exceed $100 billion (reference: Global hydrogen Compass, 2025 by Hydrogen Council). The panel agreed that technology is lagging. Global commitments to clean hydrogen projects already exceed $100 billion (reference: Global Hydrogen Compass, 2025 by the Hydrogen Council), yet some projects have been delayed or cancelled. Tarek Hosny put it, “the shift is happening - it is more a matter of timing than uncertainty.”

Offtake agreements emerged as the single most important factor for scaling the market. Lenders align financing terms with contract lengths, so without long-term offtakes, projects cannot reach final investment decision. Early movers who commit to offtake will not only secure preferential access, they will also help set benchmarks and shape the emerging market.

 

Regional dynamics and incentives

Much of the early demand for clean ammonia is coming from Europe, Japan and South Korea, where regulation, infrastructure and government support are strongest.

Policy incentives differ around the world. In the United States, the Inflation Reduction Act provides tax credits for carbon capture. In Japan, contracts for difference support coal-ammonia co-firing. Europe has introduced the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism, which makes low-carbon imports more competitive. And Germany’s H2 Global programme is testing appetite through competitive auctions.

These mechanisms are helping to close the cost gap with grey ammonia, but the panel stressed the importance of stable and pragmatic policies. Blue ammonia can deliver scale now while renewables expand, and regulations need to recognise its role rather than setting unrealistic or shifting targets.

 

Safety and trust

Ammonia is a toxic chemical, and questions around safety are natural. But Rasmussen reminded the audience that ammonia has been handled safely for more than a century, with 70 years of experience in global shipping. The priority now is transferring this safety culture into new sectors such as shipping and power generation, supported by training and engineering safeguards.

Trust also depends on certification. Without common methodologies for calculating carbon intensity, buyers cannot be confident that the molecules they purchase genuinely deliver decarbonisation. Transparency will be critical to build a functioning global market.

 

Looking to 2030

The panel closed by looking ahead. By 2030, the industry expects to see:

• World-scale blue ammonia projects operating with high capture rates

• Ammonia co-firing in power plants demonstrated at scale

• Marine engines running on ammonia in service

• Large-scale cracking infrastructure in Europe and Asia enabling hydrogen imports

As Ingram summarised, the technologies exist, infrastructure is largely in place, and regulatory support is growing. The missing piece is demand certainty. Real success will come when offtakers commit, giving investors the confidence to unlock projects and scale supply chains.

Collaboration is key. Johnson Matthey and thyssenkrupp Uhde have built on a 25-year partnership to offer integrated, large-scale solutions. Together they provide customers with options ranging from modularised plants to world-scale complexes, tailoring technology choices to each project.

 

Conclusion

The Argus–Johnson Matthey webinar showed that clean ammonia is no longer just a concept. The molecules are ready, the partnerships are forming, and the first projects are underway.

Progress may not be linear, but momentum is building. For customers across energy, shipping and industry, the opportunity is clear: secure access to a versatile, carbon-free molecule that can underpin long-term decarbonisation strategies. Those who act early will help shape the clean ammonia market of the future.