Pgm Market Report: February 2020

Key highlights 

 

Platinum outlook for 2020

• Unless investor appetites are sustained into 2020, the platinum market could move back into surplus.
• Rising autocatalyst recycling will at best offset a fall in primary supplies, but demand excluding investment is more likely to fall than to rise.
• Increased use of platinum on Indian and Chinese trucks will provide some support to auto demand.
• Despite rising interest from automakers, 2020 is still too early to expect significant substitution of platinum into gasoline emissions catalysts.
• With sentiment remaining decidedly negative, Chinese jewellery demand will remain depressed and could contract further this year.

 

Palladium outlook for 2020

• A further rise in automotive demand is expected to push the palladium market deeper into deficit this year.
• Efforts to reduce palladium consumption in the automotive industry are unlikely to prevent demand rising in 2020, as stricter emissions legislation in China and Europe will drive up vehicle palladium loadings.
• Remaining ETF holdings of palladium are not enough to offset the anticipated shortfall in supply.
• The response of supplies to price is constrained by capacity and other factors.

 

Rhodium outlook for 2020

• We expect the rhodium market to move deeper into deficit in 2020, as automotive demand is likely to post further gains despite any price-driven thrifting.
• With limited capacity for underlying supplies to respond, the extent of in-process stocks will be key to market liquidity this year.